TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9AM-9:15AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 9:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9AM-9:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9AM-9:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 09h:31m:16s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9AM-9:15AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9AM-9:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
9h 31m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T14:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T14:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM ET on November 3. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded on this market is $0, giving an indication of how much interest traders have in predicting this short-term price fluctuation.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide long-term projections for gold, this market focuses on a very specific 15-minute window. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as analysts may not account for short-term market reactions to breaking news or unexpected economic data. This market aggregates the wisdom of many traders, potentially revealing insights that aren’t immediately apparent in standard financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of the traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of gold increasing in value is influenced by recent trading activity and overall market sentiment, making it a dynamic indicator of short-term expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM ET on November 3. If the price is higher at 9:15 AM than at 9:00 AM, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be declared the winner. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected policy announcements from major central banks, are also likely to cause price fluctuations. Even breaking news related to major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could impact trading activity in this market, shifting the odds as traders react to new information.