TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 9:30 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 9:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 13h:28m:45s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
13h 28m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:30AM and 9:45AM ET on November 3rd. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how much activity is occurring before the event.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing beliefs as probabilities. If analysts are largely bullish on gold, we might expect to see the 'Up' outcome favored here, and vice versa. However, discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and information access, making this market a valuable complement to conventional financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of participants, and the implied probability of each outcome is derived from these prices. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:30AM and 9:45AM ET on November 3rd. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. The exact price change will be verified against established financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news regarding central bank monetary policy, particularly related to interest rates, could trigger substantial price movements and influence trading activity in this market.