TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 9:15 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 9:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:02h:08m

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
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1d 2h 8m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T02:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T02:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. It also displays the price history of the market, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $0. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential opportunities. The total volume for this market is $0, providing insight into overall interest.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might rely on economic indicators and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions about geopolitical events, unexpected economic data releases, or shifts in investor sentiment. It’s important to consider both perspectives when forming an informed opinion about the future direction of gold.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, trading activity, and overall market sentiment, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of potential gold price changes.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:15 PM ET and 9:30 PM ET on November 3rd. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, can influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, changes in interest rate expectations or currency fluctuations could impact the price. Any surprise announcements from central banks or major gold-producing nations could also trigger substantial market movement.