TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 9:15 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 9:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 08h:45m:48s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8h 45m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T14:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T14:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:15AM and 9:30AM ET on November 3rd. It also displays the trading volume, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. Users can view a price history chart to see how the market has been trading, providing insight into trader sentiment. This allows participants to assess the collective prediction and make informed decisions.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, representing what traders believe will happen, while analyst forecasts are based on individual expertise and models. Often, this market will show a different perspective than traditional polls or expert opinions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, access to information, or biases. Comparing this market’s probabilities to those offered by financial analysts can reveal interesting insights into market sentiment and potential areas of disagreement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down within the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price changes that capture new information and evolving expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:15AM and 9:30AM ET on November 3rd. If the price increases, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could influence the gold price movement market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, or significant currency fluctuations, could all contribute to price volatility and move this market. Any news impacting investor risk appetite could also play a role.