TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8AM-8:15AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 8:00 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 8:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8AM-8:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8AM-8:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 16h:23m:26s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8AM-8:15AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 8AM-8:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 23m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T13:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T13:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0, indicating overall interest. This allows participants to quickly assess the collective prediction and how it’s evolving as new information becomes available.

Currently, the collective wisdom of the crowd on Predict offers a unique perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates diverse opinions into a probability distribution. It’s important to remember that analyst predictions can be influenced by biases or institutional pressures, whereas this market reflects a broader range of perspectives. Examining the difference between these viewpoints can be valuable for informed decision-making, though it's not a direct comparison of like-for-like predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, leading to dynamic price adjustments. This mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of probabilities, distinct from static polls or surveys.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be determined by comparing the gold price at 8:00 AM - 8:15 AM ET on November 3rd to the price at 8:00 AM ET. If the price is higher, the 'Up' outcome prevails; if it's lower, the 'Down' outcome prevails. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of the market’s accuracy, based on publicly available data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant movements in the US dollar or changes in investor sentiment towards riskier assets could also lead to substantial shifts in the odds within this market.