TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7PM-7:15PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 7:00 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 7:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7PM-7:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7PM-7:15PM ET - Predict

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:01h:03m

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7PM-7:15PM ET

Amount

$

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7PM-7:15PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
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N/A
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1d 1h 3m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T00:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T00:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded – currently $0 – and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how actively traders are participating. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, giving insight into evolving expectations.

Currently, it’s useful to compare how traders are pricing in potential gold price movements against expert analyst opinions. Recent polls and forecasts from financial analysts show a varied outlook, with some predicting a slight increase and others anticipating a decline. This market provides a unique perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of a diverse group of individuals actively putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and analyst forecasts can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors influencing the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants, offering a forward-looking indicator of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:00 PM ET and 7:15 PM ET on November 3rd. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The precise price change will be verified against reliable financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Key economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, major news regarding gold mining production or demand from large economies like China and India could trigger price movements and, consequently, shifts in this market’s probabilities.