TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7AM-7:15AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 7:00 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 7:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7AM-7:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7AM-7:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 09h:40m:38s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7AM-7:15AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7AM-7:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
9h 40m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T12:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T12:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions evolve as new information becomes available.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of perspectives and potentially incorporating information not yet reflected in standard analyses. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can react more quickly to unexpected events and shifts in sentiment. This difference can offer valuable insights into market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will move up or down. The prices of these contracts dynamically adjust based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating in this market, making it a real-time gauge of expectations. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract will become, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:00 AM ET and 7:15 AM ET on November 3, 2026. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that 15-minute window, and payouts will be awarded accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price movement. The resolution process is designed to be objective and transparent.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant changes in currency exchange rates could also influence trading activity in this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential price swings.