TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7:45PM-8PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 7:45 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7:45PM-8PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7:45PM-8PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 22h:43m:10s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7:45PM-8PM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 7:45PM-8PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
22h 43m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T00:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T00:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value. You'll find a real-time price chart reflecting trader sentiment, along with the total volume traded—currently $0—and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $0. The dashboard also shows the percentage of traders predicting each outcome, offering a snapshot of the collective forecast. This allows you to quickly gauge market expectations and track how they evolve as new information becomes available.

Often, prediction market odds diverge from traditional analyst forecasts, reflecting the 'wisdom of the crowd' and incorporating a broader range of information. While analysts may focus on fundamental economic factors, this market aggregates insights from numerous participants, potentially capturing subtle signals or anticipating shifts in sentiment that analysts might miss. It's common to see discrepancies, especially in volatile situations, as traders react quickly to news and events. Comparing this market to poll results and expert opinions can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that as more traders believe gold will increase, the price of 'up' contracts will rise, and vice versa. The market efficiently incorporates new information as it becomes available, leading to dynamic price adjustments.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe—November 3, 7:45 PM to 8:00 PM ET—as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The direction of the price movement (up or down) will determine which outcome is considered correct and used for settlement of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact the gold price movement market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger volatility in gold. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations, announcements from central banks, and even major currency fluctuations could all influence trader sentiment and cause shifts in the odds within this market before Nov 4, 2026.