TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 6PM-6:15PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 6:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 6PM-6:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 6PM-6:15PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 17h:46m:51s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 6PM-6:15PM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 6PM-6:15PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
17h 46m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T23:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T23:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You'll find a dynamic display of the odds, reflecting the collective predictions of traders on the platform. It also provides a price history chart, showing how the market has priced in different expectations over time. Finally, the dashboard shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, giving an indication of how actively this market is being traded. The total volume is $0.

Currently, analysts are divided on the short-term trajectory of gold, with some predicting a slight increase due to geopolitical uncertainty and others forecasting a decline based on strengthening economic indicators. This market allows you to compare the wisdom of the crowd to these expert opinions. If the prediction market odds significantly diverge from the consensus of financial analysts, it could indicate that traders possess information or insights not yet reflected in traditional forecasts. Examining this difference can offer a unique perspective on potential gold price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the demand for contracts predicting an increase, the higher the implied probability of gold rising, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the traders participating in this market.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:00 PM ET and 6:15 PM ET on November 3rd. If the price is higher at 6:15 PM ET than at 6:00 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 3, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant shifts in monetary policy by central banks, like the Federal Reserve, could trigger price movements. Finally, major news related to gold mining production or global demand could also affect trading activity in this market.