TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:45AM-6AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 5:45 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 6:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:45AM-6AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:45AM-6AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 05h:27m:18s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:45AM-6AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:45AM-6AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5h 27m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T10:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T10:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds represent a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to remember that analysts often rely on fundamental analysis and economic indicators, while this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders responding to rapidly evolving information. This difference can lead to discrepancies between expert predictions and the probabilities expressed in this market.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 5:45 AM to 6:00 AM Eastern Time window on November 3, 2026. Whether the market settles on 'up' or 'down' depends on whether the price at 6:00 AM ET is higher or lower than the price at 5:45 AM ET, as reported by a widely recognized financial data source.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major geopolitical events, such as escalating conflicts or unexpected political developments, often drive investors towards gold as a safe haven asset. Economic data releases, particularly inflation figures and interest rate decisions from central banks, can also have a substantial impact. Unexpected news regarding gold mining production, central bank gold reserves, or shifts in global currency valuations could all influence trading activity in this market and alter the perceived probability of gold’s price movement.