TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 5:15 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 5:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:01h:40m

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 1h 40m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T22:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T22:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a historical price chart reflecting how predictions have shifted, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and track how predictions evolve as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a dynamic snapshot of where traders believe the gold price is headed.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental economic data and technical indicators, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data, varying risk appetites, or the inclusion of non-public information by market participants. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analyst reports, providing a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will increase, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and collective intelligence of the participants.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 5:15PM-5:30PM ET window on November 3rd. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'up', while a price decrease will favor those who predicted 'down'. The exact price change will be verified against established financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or the strength of the US dollar could play a role. Any news impacting investor risk appetite or safe-haven demand for gold has the potential to shift the odds in this market considerably.