TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 5:15 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 5:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 05h:30m:56s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5h 30m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T10:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T10:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the total volume traded – currently $0 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and see how the probabilities are shifting as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of the market’s expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and historical trends, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals actively putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, the inclusion of non-public information, or simply a varying degree of confidence in future outcomes. It’s common to see this market diverge from consensus expectations, offering a potentially valuable signal for those seeking alternative viewpoints.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of gold increasing in value, with traders adjusting their positions as new information emerges. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to changing conditions and reflects the latest insights.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 5:15AM-5:30AM ET window on November 3rd. Whether the price moves up or down will determine the winning outcome. The platform will verify the final price against established financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or major currency fluctuations could trigger price movements. Any news related to central bank policies or significant shifts in investor sentiment could also cause substantial changes in this market.