TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

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40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 4:15 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 4:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 18h:18m:47s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 18m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T21:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T21:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a price history chart illustrating how the probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This provides a visual representation of market sentiment and trading activity, allowing you to assess how others are predicting the direction of the gold price.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market’s odds reflect a more nuanced view, with a significant portion of traders anticipating a potential price decrease. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent a real-money view, incentivizing participants to be as accurate as possible, which can sometimes diverge from publicly stated opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions, offering a real-time assessment of market expectations for the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:15 PM and 4:30 PM ET on November 3rd. If the price is higher at 4:30 PM than at 4:15 PM, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it is lower, the 'Down' outcome will win. The precise price difference will not be a factor, only the direction of the change.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 3, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, are likely to influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions in major regions or unexpected political developments, could also drive safe-haven demand for gold. Finally, major news regarding central bank gold reserves or significant trading activity from large institutional investors could also move this market considerably.