TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-4PM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 3:45 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 18h:05m:37s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-4PM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-4PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 5m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T20:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T20:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds, reflecting what traders believe about whether the price of gold will increase or decrease. You’ll also find a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, along with the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $0. The total volume traded to date is $0. This information provides a real-time view of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated direction of gold prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often present a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts offer price targets for gold, this market allows traders to express their beliefs about a simple up or down movement over a specific timeframe. This can lead to divergences, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and reflects the collective wisdom of participants. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert predictions and the implied probabilities within this market, offering a unique signal for those following gold.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s consensus expectation, and traders are constantly adjusting their positions as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time assessment of the potential gold price movement.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between the opening price at 3:45 PM ET and the closing price at 4:00 PM ET on November 3rd. If the price increases, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can have a substantial impact. Any surprise developments in these areas could lead to increased trading volume and a shift in the odds within this market.