TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 3:45AM-4AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 3:45 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 4:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 3:45AM-4AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 3:45AM-4AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 08h:30m:56s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 3:45AM-4AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 3:45AM-4AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
8h 30m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T08:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T08:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This information provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential for price changes in gold, offering insight into market sentiment. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding gold’s future performance. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to economic uncertainty, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, whereas this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. This difference highlights the value of considering diverse sources of information when evaluating potential investment opportunities.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregate sentiment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to each outcome, providing a dynamic assessment of potential price movements. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contract will become, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe, from 3:45AM to 4:00AM ET on November 3rd. A definitive increase or decrease in price will determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Predict once the data has been verified, and payouts will be processed accordingly.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or political instability, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, could influence the price of gold. Any surprising news related to gold mining production or demand from major consumers like China and India could also cause substantial price fluctuations.