TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 3, 2AM-2:15AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 2:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 2AM-2:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 2AM-2:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 06h:00m:49s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 2AM-2:15AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 2AM-2:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6h
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T07:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T07:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, along with a price history showing how those odds have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total market volume, which is $0. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on economic indicators and historical trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of non-public information by traders. It’s common to see this market diverge from consensus analyst expectations, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on the likely direction of the gold price.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing, with higher prices suggesting a stronger belief in an upward movement. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price changes throughout the trading period.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on November 3, 2026. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The precise price data used for verification will come from established financial data sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, and unexpected news regarding gold mining production or central bank gold reserves could all influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.