TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 2:30 AM EST
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T07:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T07:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the total volume traded—currently $0—and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to quickly gauge market sentiment and see how the probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of predictions as they evolve leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders betting real capital. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of economic indicators, geopolitical events, or simply varying risk appetites. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream financial commentary, offering a potentially valuable signal for those following gold.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders bet on gold going up, the higher the price of the 'up' contract becomes, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between the start and end of the 2:15AM-2:30AM ET window on November 3rd. A definitive increase or decrease will determine the winning outcome of this market. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the resolution is confirmed.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 3, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger volatility in gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, shifts in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could impact the attractiveness of gold relative to other investments. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential movements in this market.