TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 1:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 04h:09m:04s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

51%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 51¢ buys you 196 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $196 | Net Profit: $96 Multiplier: 1.96x | ROI: 96% | APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4h 9m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T06:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T06:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You'll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume for this market is $0. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential opportunities based on how others are positioning themselves before Nov 3, 2026.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts predict a continued upward trend in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating a range of potential outcomes. It's important to remember that prediction markets represent a real-money view, where participants have a financial stake in their predictions, potentially leading to more accurate forecasts than polls or expert opinions alone. This dynamic makes this market a valuable signal.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30 AM and 1:45 AM ET on November 3, 2026. A definitive increase or decrease in price during that period will determine the winning outcome. Traders should monitor news and economic indicators leading up to this time, as these factors will likely influence the final result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as escalating conflicts or unexpected political shifts, often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Economic data releases, particularly inflation figures and interest rate decisions from central banks, also have a substantial impact on gold prices. Unexpected announcements regarding global economic growth or significant shifts in currency valuations could also trigger price movements. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market.