TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 2:21 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 12:45 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 04h:06m:04s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

51%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 51¢ buys you 196 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $196 | Net Profit: $96 Multiplier: 1.96x | ROI: 96% | APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4h 6m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T05:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T05:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving leading up to the event. The dashboard helps visualize the collective prediction of the crowd.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are making predictions about gold's future performance, this market allows traders to express their beliefs directly through financial commitments. This can lead to divergences, as market participants may weigh information differently or have access to unique insights. It's common to see this market pricing in probabilities that contrast with the consensus view from financial news outlets and expert opinions, offering a unique signal about potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the crowd and provides a forward-looking assessment of the potential price movement.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 12:30AM-12:45AM ET timeframe on November 3rd. The direction of the price movement – whether it increases or decreases – will determine which outcome is considered correct. The market will then settle based on this verified price change, distributing payouts to those who correctly predicted the direction.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or escalations in international tensions, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, shifts in currency valuations, particularly the US dollar, and any significant news related to gold mining production or global demand could all contribute to price volatility and movement within this market.