TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$263

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 3, 2026

Closed: Nov 3, 12:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T05:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T05:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $260, and the total volume traded to date, which is $263. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price fluctuations of gold. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific price targets based on economic indicators, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of opinions and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of factors not typically considered in standard financial analysis. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations and potential surprises.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market, making it a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations. The market’s pricing mechanism allows for quick adjustments to new information and evolving sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe – November 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET. A clear upward or downward movement will determine the winning outcome. The platform will verify the final price against established financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, central bank announcements regarding monetary policy or interest rates could impact the price of gold. Any surprise developments in these areas could lead to substantial shifts in trading activity and market odds.