TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 11AM-11:15AM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 11:00 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 11AM-11:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 11AM-11:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 14h:38m:09s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 11AM-11:15AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 11AM-11:15AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
14h 38m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T16:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T16:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on November 3rd. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets, giving insight into the collective prediction.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict suggests a specific probability for gold's price movement, but this differs from typical analyst forecasts. Often, prediction markets can offer a more accurate signal than polls or expert opinions, as traders have ‘skin in the game’ and are incentivized to make correct predictions. However, it’s important to remember that analysts consider a wider range of factors, and their forecasts can provide valuable context when evaluating this market. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will go up or down. The price of these contracts reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the ‘up’ contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. The prices are determined solely by supply and demand within Predict.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of gold between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on November 3rd. If the price is higher than its starting value at 11:00 AM ET, the ‘up’ outcome will win; otherwise, the ‘down’ outcome prevails. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining the result of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 3, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, can have a substantial effect. Any significant news related to major gold-producing nations or large institutional investors could also move this market.