TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 11:15 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:07h:38m

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

Amount

$

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 7h 38m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T04:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-04T04:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the total volume traded, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. The dashboard also displays a price history showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, giving you a sense of market sentiment. This allows you to monitor the collective prediction about whether the gold price will go up or down.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market represents a probability distribution based on the collective wisdom of traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market incorporate information faster than traditional forecasts, especially regarding unexpected events or sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:15 PM ET and 11:30 PM ET on November 3rd. If the price is higher at 11:30 PM ET than at 11:15 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in investor risk appetite could trigger price movements. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or large institutional investors adjusting their holdings could also move this market.