TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

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40,213

events

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4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - November 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
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predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 27, 2026, 10:15 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 10:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 16h:04m:16s

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
16h 4m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T15:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T15:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold to move up or down between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on November 3rd. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume across the lifetime of this market is $0. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a real-money view of the likely outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market diverge from polls or expert predictions, particularly when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down within the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on November 3rd. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or the strength of the US dollar could impact investor sentiment towards gold. Any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in global risk appetite could also lead to substantial price movements in this market.