TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 26, 2026, 9:30 PM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 9:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Time left: 01h:54m:09s

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

51%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 51¢ buys you 196 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $196 | Net Profit: $96 Multiplier: 1.96x | ROI: 96% APY not meaningful Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1h 54m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T02:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T02:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, along with the total volume traded—currently $0—and the 24-hour volume, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in this particular event. The dashboard also displays price history, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their capital at risk. This can lead to divergences, as traders may incorporate information not readily available to analysts or weigh factors differently. It’s common to see this market incorporate real-time news and sentiment, potentially reacting faster than typical analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds constantly adjust as new information becomes available and traders update their views. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts reflects the level of uncertainty surrounding the event.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 9:30 PM ET and 9:45 PM ET on November 2nd. A positive change indicates the price moved up, while a negative change indicates it moved down. The final price movement, as reported by a trusted financial data source, will determine which outcome is considered correct for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 3, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, any news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could cause traders to reassess their positions. Even significant shifts in investor sentiment, perhaps triggered by major news headlines, could move this market.