TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$172,394,893

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,821,572,886

404,136

Markets across

40,075

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$201

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$46
$201
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $199. The total volume for this market is $201, indicating overall interest. This information allows you to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions evolve as new information becomes available.

Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between the predictions reflected in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing beliefs as probabilities. It's common to see prediction markets outperform polls or individual expert opinions, as they dynamically incorporate new data and diverse perspectives. However, a comprehensive comparison would require a standardized analysis of recent analyst reports alongside the evolving probabilities shown in this market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, constantly adjusting their positions and influencing the odds. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:30 AM and 9:45 AM ET on November 2, 2026. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will win. The precise price source will be determined by Predict’s standard procedures for commodity price verification.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or trade disputes, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also cause substantial movement in this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding the evolving probabilities.