TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

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40,428

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4,364

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5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8AM-8:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 26, 2026, 8:00 AM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 8:15 AM EST
Total volume:
$718
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$25
100%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8AM-8:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8AM-8:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 8:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8AM-8:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$25
$718
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T13:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T13:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 8:00 AM and 8:15 AM ET on November 2nd. You’ll find a visualization of these probabilities, along with the total volume traded, currently at $0, and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $0. The dashboard also displays the price history of the market, allowing you to see how predictions have shifted over time. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the potential for price fluctuations.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict often provides a unique perspective, potentially incorporating information and insights not readily available in standard financial analysis. If analysts generally predict a price increase, we might expect to see higher probabilities assigned to the 'Up' outcome in this market, and vice versa. Discrepancies between market odds and analyst opinions can be valuable signals for further investigation and due diligence.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will move up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price essentially represents the probability that the gold price will be higher at 8:15 AM ET than at 8:00 AM ET on November 2nd, as determined by traders on the platform. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments to expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the difference between the gold price at 8:00 AM ET and 8:15 AM ET on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 8:15 AM, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it's lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The platform will utilize publicly available data sources to determine the official price at these specific times, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result.

Several factors could influence the gold price movement market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often have a significant impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or major international developments, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price fluctuations. Shifts in investor sentiment, driven by news or market trends, will also play a role in shaping predictions within this market.