TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:45AM-9AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 26, 2026, 8:45 AM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$625
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:45AM-9AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:45AM-9AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 9:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 8:45AM-9AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 8:45AM and 9:00AM ET on November 2nd. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $618. The total volume traded to date is $625, providing insight into overall market interest. This allows traders to quickly assess the sentiment surrounding short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the same event. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to divergences from initial analyst predictions. Comparing the two provides a broader understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by traders reacting to news, economic data releases, and overall market sentiment regarding gold. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:45AM and 9:00AM ET on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 9:00AM ET than at 8:45AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global political stability or major international news, can also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly concerning interest rates, are closely watched by gold traders. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market sentiment related to these factors could lead to substantial changes in the odds of the ‘Up’ or ‘Down’ outcome.