TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 26, 2026, 7:30 PM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 7:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Time left: 01h:35m:33s

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

51%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 51¢ buys you 196 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $196 | Net Profit: $96 Multiplier: 1.96x | ROI: 96% APY not meaningful Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1h 35m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T00:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T00:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total market volume, which is $0. This information allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of how participants are forecasting the direction of gold prices leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts rely on economic indicators and historical trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of factors not typically considered in standard financial analysis. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases, offering a more nuanced view than either source alone.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of a price increase, with higher prices suggesting a stronger belief in an upward movement. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments to expectations as new information becomes available.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe – 7:30 PM to 7:45 PM ET on November 2nd. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'down' outcome will be verified. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 3, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, could impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price movements. Finally, significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or weakness will likely play a role in determining the direction of gold prices.