TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

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$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$475

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$475
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T12:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T12:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the price history of the market itself. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $467, and the total volume traded to date, which is $475. This provides a quick overview of market activity and sentiment surrounding the potential price fluctuations of gold.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders on Predict, and may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market allows traders to express probabilities for a simple up or down outcome. Comparing this market to external polls or expert opinions can reveal interesting insights into how crowd-sourced predictions align with conventional financial analysis. It's a different way to gauge expectations for the gold market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be higher or lower during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving expectations of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the predicted event occurring. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:30 AM and 7:45 AM ET on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 7:45 AM ET than at 7:30 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final determination will be based on widely available financial data sources.

Several factors could influence the gold price movement market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or major currency fluctuations could significantly affect the market. Any news related to central bank policies or major gold-holding countries could also cause shifts in trader sentiment and move this market.