TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 6PM-6:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$294

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 6PM-6:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 6PM-6:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 6:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 6PM-6:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$294
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T23:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T23:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 6:00 PM and 6:15 PM ET on November 2nd. You’ll see the current odds, a price history chart reflecting how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $291. The total volume for this market is $294. This information helps you understand where other traders stand on the likely direction of the gold price during that specific window.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and directional guidance, this market represents a collective judgment of traders who are putting capital behind their beliefs. If analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on gold, you might see higher probabilities assigned to an upward price movement here, but discrepancies can occur due to differing methodologies and risk appetites. It’s valuable to compare the implied probabilities in this market with the consensus view from financial news and research reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the evolving sentiment of traders focused on this specific commodity and time window.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:00 PM and 6:15 PM ET on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 6:15 PM ET than at 6:00 PM ET, the ‘up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘down’ outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global political stability or major international news, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, or unexpected shifts in currency exchange rates, could influence the direction of the gold price during the 6:00 PM - 6:15 PM ET window on November 2nd.