TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5PM-5:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$375

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5PM-5:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5PM-5:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 5:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5PM-5:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$375
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T22:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T22:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $374, and the total volume traded to date, which is $375. This provides a visual representation of market sentiment and activity, allowing you to see how traders are positioning themselves on the future direction of gold. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading action.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders betting real money on the outcome. This can lead to divergences, as traders may incorporate information or insights not fully captured in standard analyst reports. It's common to see the market pricing in probabilities that differ from the consensus view presented in financial news and research.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price effectively represents the market’s forecast, and changes in price indicate shifts in sentiment as new information becomes available. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the direction of the gold price.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:00 PM and 5:15 PM ET on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 5:15 PM ET than at 5:00 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or international conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, changes in interest rate expectations set by central banks, like the Federal Reserve, and fluctuations in the US dollar's strength are key catalysts. Any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in investor sentiment could also move the market.