TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-6PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$655

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-6PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-6PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 6:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:45PM-6PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$3
$655
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T22:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T22:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $653, and the total volume traded to date, which is $655. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves before the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may lean towards a particular direction based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially revealing insights not captured by individual analyses. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert predictions and the collective forecast embedded in the odds displayed on Predict. This difference can stem from varying interpretations of data or the inclusion of factors not typically considered by analysts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective expectation of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information emerges or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated view of market confidence.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe—November 2, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET—as reported by a widely recognized financial data source. The direction of the price movement, whether up or down, will determine which outcome is considered correct. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations or significant currency fluctuations could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Any news impacting the perceived safe-haven status of gold, or the strength of the US dollar, has the potential to shift the odds in this market.