TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:45AM-6AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$484

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:45AM-6AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:45AM-6AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:45AM-6AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$218
$484
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T10:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T10:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You can see the odds reflecting trader sentiment, as well as a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $473, and the total market volume, which is $484. This provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on the future direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting continued volatility in precious metals, this market reflects a more nuanced view based on the collective judgment of traders. It's common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the wisdom of the crowd, particularly in short-term markets like this one. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential surprises.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 5:45AM-6:00AM ET window on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 6:00AM ET than it was at 5:45AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will win; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive investor interest in safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger a shift in trader sentiment and significantly alter the odds in this market. Keep an eye on these developments leading up to Nov 2, 2026.