TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
⌛Ending Soon
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 26, 2026, 5:30 PM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 5:45 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$0N/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Time left: 02h:07m:04s

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

51%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 51¢ buys you 196 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $196 | Net Profit: $96 Multiplier: 1.96x | ROI: 96% | APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2h 7m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T22:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T22:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This information provides a snapshot of how traders are positioning themselves on the anticipated direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, this market shows a more nuanced view. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on complex models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective judgment of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of economic data or simply varying risk appetites.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between the opening and closing prices during the 5:30PM-5:45PM ET window on November 2nd. The direction of the price movement—whether it goes up or down—will determine which outcome is considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could shift investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions in key regions or major policy announcements, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any significant changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve could impact the gold price. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential movements in this market.