TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4AM-4:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$625

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4AM-4:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4AM-4:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 4:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4AM-4:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$63
$625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T09:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T09:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $635. The total volume traded on this market is $625. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets regarding the direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets and recommendations for gold, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. If analysts are largely bullish on gold, you might see higher probabilities assigned to an upward price movement in this market, but it’s not always a direct correlation. It’s a fascinating comparison to observe.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, adjusting their positions and influencing the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated sentiment of participants.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:00 AM and 4:15 AM ET on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 4:15 AM ET than at 4:00 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The precise price data used for verification will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in global risk sentiment could influence trading activity. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or central bank gold reserves could also be catalysts.