TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:45AM-5AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$36

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:45AM-5AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:45AM-5AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 5:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:45AM-5AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$36
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T09:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T09:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $36, and the 24-hour volume, which is $36. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price, and how much activity there is surrounding this event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market shows a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on specific models and assumptions, whereas this market represents the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. The comparison highlights how prediction markets can offer an alternative, real-time assessment of future events.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe of November 2, 4:45AM-5AM ET. The direction of the price movement—whether it increases or decreases—will determine which outcome is considered correct. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payouts on Predict following the resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating conflicts or unexpected political developments, could also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in global risk appetite could influence trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.