TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$532

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 4:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$35
$532
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T09:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T09:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4:30AM and 4:45AM ET on November 2nd. You’ll find a history of how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the current 24-hour trading volume of $535. The total volume traded to date is $532. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to news and information as the event approaches and understand the overall market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, whereas this market represents the collective judgment of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. This provides a unique signal that can be valuable when forming your own opinion.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of gold increasing in value. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to new information.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 4:30AM and 4:45AM ET on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 4:45AM ET than at 4:30AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final result will be determined by a trusted data source.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or unexpected political developments, could also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or shifts in global currency valuations could also impact trading activity. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential price movements.