TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$641

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 4:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$641
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T21:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T21:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value, alongside a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $630, and the total volume traded to date, which is $641. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving regarding the short-term direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend based on geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective judgment of individuals putting their capital at risk. This difference highlights the potential value of prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the buy and sell prices reflects the level of uncertainty and the intensity of trading activity in this market. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, which dynamically updates the probabilities displayed on the dashboard.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 4:15 PM ET and 4:30 PM ET on November 2nd. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be correct. The precise price change will be verified against established financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating conflicts or unexpected political developments, could also drive safe-haven demand for gold. Additionally, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by gold traders. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market sentiment related to these events could lead to substantial changes in the probabilities reflected in this market.