TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 3PM-3:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 3:15 PM EST
Total volume:
$70
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$555
100%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 3PM-3:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 3PM-3:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 3PM-3:15PM ET

32%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 37¢ buys you 270 shares | Odds: 32% Total Payout: $270 | Net Profit: $170 Multiplier: 2.70x | ROI: 170% | APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 3PM-3:15PM ET

Trade
32%
Yes 37¢No 73¢
10¢
$555
$70
0%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T20:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T20:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 3PM and 3:15PM ET on November 2nd. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $70, and the total volume traded to date, which is $70. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently issue price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals betting their own capital. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of economic data, geopolitical events, or simply varying risk appetites. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they are reflected in mainstream financial commentary, or to assign different probabilities to the same potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, constantly adjusting their positions and influencing the odds. This dynamic process aims to reflect the most accurate collective forecast possible.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on the change in the gold price between 3PM and 3:15PM ET on November 2nd. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also trigger substantial movements. Furthermore, shifts in interest rate expectations, central bank actions, or even major currency fluctuations could all play a role. Any news that affects investor risk appetite or the perceived value of gold as a safe-haven asset has the potential to move this market.