TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 2, 2:45PM-3PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$405

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 2:45PM-3PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 2:45PM-3PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 3:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 2:45PM-3PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$218
$405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $400, and the total volume traded to date, which is $405. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how actively traders are participating in this particular market. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how participants are forecasting the price of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts may offer price targets for gold based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of the same data, or because traders have access to information not yet reflected in mainstream analysis. It’s common to see this market anticipating movements before they are widely predicted by conventional sources.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. As more people buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and the odds of gold increasing shift accordingly. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the probability that the majority of traders assign to each outcome. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly adjusting to incorporate new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe, from 2:45 PM to 3:00 PM ET on November 2nd. The market will determine if the price increased or decreased during this period, and payouts will be awarded accordingly to those who correctly predicted the movement. No further details on the resolution process are available.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Unexpected news regarding central bank gold reserves or significant shifts in global currency valuations could also influence trading activity in this market. Any surprise announcements related to these areas could lead to rapid price fluctuations.