TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

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2,984,640,614

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$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

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4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$25

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 3:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$45
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T07:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T07:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, alongside a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $25, and the total volume traded to date, which is $25. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s trajectory, this market allows traders to express their own beliefs and aggregate those into a collective forecast. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipating moves before they are widely reported by mainstream financial news, or conversely, discounting forecasts that appear overly optimistic or pessimistic. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified resolution time. As more traders buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and the implied probability of gold rising also increases. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, constantly adjusting as new information and opinions enter the market. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to evolving sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 2:45AM-3:00AM ET timeframe on November 2nd. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who bet on 'up', while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'down'. The exact price change will be verified against established financial data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating conflicts or unexpected political developments, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in global risk appetite could trigger significant price movements. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market’s odds.