TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1PM-1:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$84

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 1:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1PM-1:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$45
$84
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1PM and 1:15PM ET on November 2nd. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $83. The total volume for this market is $84, indicating the overall interest from traders. This information helps you understand where the crowd stands on the likely direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental economic indicators and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly in the short-term, as traders react quickly to news and events. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential surprises, but remember this market focuses solely on the price movement within the specified timeframe.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1PM and 1:15PM ET on November 2nd. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider and verified against established market standards.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected political developments, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, major news regarding central bank policies, particularly those of the Federal Reserve, could influence investor sentiment. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market risk appetite could lead to substantial changes in the odds within this market.