TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1:45AM-2AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$370

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 2:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1:45AM-2AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$56
$370
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T06:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T06:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $368, and the total volume traded to date, which is $370. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the future direction of gold. The dashboard provides a clear, real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on this outcome.

Currently, the collective prediction from this market is being formed by traders on Predict. It’s common to see differences between these probabilities and those offered by traditional financial analysts or polls. Analysts often rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, while this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating unexpected events. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions, biases, or simply the unique insights captured within the prediction market. It’s a fascinating comparison point for anyone following gold’s potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome as perceived by the market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market constantly adapts to new information and changing sentiment regarding the future price of gold.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe of November 2, 1:45AM-2AM ET. A clear upward or downward movement will determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and how it aligns with their predictions after the resolution date. The outcome is determined by objective price data, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result for this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected crises, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates and quantitative easing, are key drivers. Even major news concerning large gold-holding nations or significant shifts in investor sentiment could cause substantial movement in this market.