TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$235

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 1:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T06:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T06:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $231, and the total volume traded to date, which is $235. This data allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how traders are reacting to news and events that could impact the price of gold. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the market’s expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly in situations with high uncertainty or where subjective factors play a significant role. This difference in perspective can be valuable for identifying potential blind spots in conventional analysis and gaining a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective expectation of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a dynamic and responsive market.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:30 AM and 1:45 AM ET on November 2nd. A positive change indicates an upward movement, while a negative change signifies a downward movement. The market will settle based on this verified price change, providing a clear and objective outcome for all participants.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, are likely to have a substantial impact. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, could also drive price fluctuations as investors seek safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any significant news regarding gold mining production, central bank gold reserves, or currency fluctuations could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.