TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 11PM-11:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$761

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 11PM-11:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 11PM-11:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 11:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 11PM-11:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$50
$761
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T04:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-03T04:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a live view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $754. Total volume for this market is $761. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the gold price movement, which may differ from individual analyst forecasts. Often, this market aggregates diverse perspectives, potentially identifying insights that aren’t immediately apparent in traditional analysis. While some analysts may predict an increase, or a decrease, the aggregated wisdom of the crowd on Predict provides a dynamic view of expectations. It’s important to consider that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, while this market represents a probability distribution of possible outcomes.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:00 PM ET and 11:15 PM ET on November 2nd. The direction of the price change—whether it’s up or down—will determine which outcome is considered correct. Traders will be able to see the verified result on Predict following the close of the trading period.

Several factors could influence the gold price movement market between now and its resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a significant impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in investor risk appetite could move this market. Any news impacting global economic outlook or perceived risk could cause substantial trading activity.