TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

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$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 11AM-11:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$212

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 11AM-11:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 11AM-11:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 11:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 11AM-11:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$45
$212
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T16:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T16:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11AM and 11:15AM ET on November 2nd. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $211. The total volume for this market is $212. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and potential trading opportunities related to short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer long-term projections based on economic indicators, this market focuses on a very short-term price movement. Discrepancies can arise due to the market incorporating a wider range of information, including real-time news and trader sentiment, that may not be fully captured in standard analyst reports. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts before they appear in consensus analyst views, providing a unique signal for short-term gold price expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic price discovery process. This mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect collective intelligence regarding the short-term gold price outlook.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM Eastern Time on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 11:15 AM than at 11:00 AM, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or major international news, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could influence market sentiment. Finally, large trading volumes or unexpected moves by major institutional investors could also cause noticeable shifts in the odds within this market.