TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - November 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T15:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T15:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 10:30AM and 10:45AM ET on November 2nd. You'll find a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the total volume traded in this market – currently $218 – and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $216. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how actively traders are participating in predicting the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide predictions on gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to express their beliefs with real capital. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analyst reports, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint on the likely price movement.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the direction of the gold price between 10:30AM and 10:45AM ET on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 10:45AM ET than at 10:30AM ET, the 'up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'down' outcome will be considered the result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome and their positions.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger substantial price movements and, consequently, shifts in the odds within this market.