TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

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40,345

events

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$419

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 10:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - November 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$419
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T15:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T15:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on November 2nd. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, along with the total volume traded—currently $419—and the 24-hour volume, which is $422. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, showing how the market has fluctuated as new information and opinions emerge. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, risk tolerance, or the incorporation of information not readily available to the public. It’s common to see this market diverge from the consensus view, potentially offering insights beyond standard financial predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. The current volume indicates the level of interest and conviction among traders.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:15AM and 10:30AM ET on November 2nd. If the price is higher at 10:30AM ET than at 10:15AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected political developments, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger substantial price movements. Any significant shifts in investor sentiment or safe-haven demand due to global uncertainty could also move this market considerably.