TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 1, 9PM-9:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$314

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 9PM-9:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 9PM-9:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 9:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 9PM-9:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$314
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T02:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T02:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9PM and 9:15PM ET on November 1st. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $309. The total volume for this market is $314, indicating overall trader interest. This information allows you to gauge the collective prediction of the crowd.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental economic data and technical analysis, this market represents the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can react more quickly to news and sentiment shifts. The question is whether the collective intelligence of traders in this market will prove more accurate than expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly updated, reflecting the latest information and trader sentiment. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants on Predict.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 9:00 PM and 9:15 PM ET on November 1st. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will win. If the price decreases, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider and verified against publicly available information.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could impact investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could also cause substantial price movements. Shifts in the US dollar's strength or weakness are also key catalysts to watch.