TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - November 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$208

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 9:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - November 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$208
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T02:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-11-02T02:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of trader sentiment, the price history of the market, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $201. The total volume traded on this market is $208. This allows you to quickly assess market activity and understand where other traders are placing their predictions regarding gold’s short-term performance.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts regarding gold price movements vary considerably. Some analysts predict a slight increase due to geopolitical instability, while others anticipate a decline based on interest rate expectations. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders on Predict. Comparing the implied probabilities from this market to the range of analyst opinions can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes, though it’s crucial to remember that both represent forecasts, not guarantees.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective expectation of traders, and the market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This creates a forward-looking indicator of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:30 PM and 9:45 PM ET on November 1st. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The precise price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could shift market sentiment. Any surprise news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in investor risk appetite could also cause substantial movement in this market.